If 2025 was the year vendors announced big commercial change, 2026 is the year many organisations will actually pay for it. We’ve pulled together eight trends we think will shape software licensing in the year ahead.

1. Microsoft cost pressure becomes baked in

2026 is the year many organisations will feel the compound effect of Microsoft’s changes: EA online services pricing standardisation plus the Microsoft 365 suite price rises effective 1 July 2026. Expect more board-level scrutiny on “why is the same estate suddenly costing more?” and more customers pushed towards tighter commitment structures.

What customers should do: model renewals early, separate must-have from nice-to-have, and stop letting licensing be decided by default at renewal time. Understand how negotiating levers have shifted

Register for our webinar on how to manage Microsoft licensing in transition

2. AI agents force a new pricing wrapper

Analyst chatter and vendor moves are converging on one theme: AI agents are becoming a commercial unit. You’ll see more “digital labour” constructs where vendors try to make AI spend predictable (good news) but also make it sticky (less good). Salesforce’s Agentic Enterprise License Agreement (AELA) is a clear signal of this direction, packaging consumption-based AI into fixed-fee agreements.

What customers should do: treat agent pricing like you treat cloud: guardrails, consumption reporting, showback/chargeback, and clear ownership within IT, Procurement, and the business.

3. VMware/Broadcom continues to drive consolidation and subscription lock-in

The direction is consistent: subscription-only, fewer “pick-and-mix” choices, and commercial levers that force bigger bundles. VMware’s own messaging has been about transitioning offers to subscription, and the market impact has included high-profile customer friction and legal noise.

What customers should do: get crystal clear on your VMware dependency map by workload, then decide where you’ll pay, where you’ll negotiate hard, and where you’ll exit.

Download our VMware licensing service sheet to find out how we can help.

4. Oracle Java stays a licensing tripwire and 2026 adds a deadline moment

Oracle’s employee-based Java subscription model continues to be a surprise multiplier for costs, because costs are driven by enterprise-wide employee counts rather than where Java is actually used i.e. you pay for scope, not usage. And there’s a very practical 2026 timing issue: Oracle states that JDK 21 updates under the free-use license are planned until September 2026, after which licensing terms change for updates.

What customers should do: inventory Java properly (downloads, installs, runtimes), decide your Oracle vs open source Java stance, and don’t let September 2026 creep up quietly.

Register for our webinar: Oracle licensing in 2026 – what you need to know.

5. SAP cloud licensing complexity doesn’t go away but it shifts shape

SAP’s move toward cloud ERP packaging and constructs like FUE (Full Use Equivalent) keeps changing how customers forecast and govern usage. The simplification story often means more moving parts in practice: new SKUs, modular add-ons, and plenty of room for interpretation.

What customers should do: build a clean mapping between business roles, entitlements, and FUE outcomes. Then lock commercial assumptions into contract language.

6. Price rises get justified as value uplift from AI/security

Microsoft is explicitly tying pricing to added security and AI capabilities. Expect others to follow: bundles get “better”, prices go up, and you’re told it is progress, even if you didn’t ask for it and haven’t factored it into your budget.

What customers should do: create a simple internal test: “Are we actually using what we’re paying extra for?” If not, you’ve got a negotiation narrative.

7. Audit intensity remains high, but the battleground shifts to hybrid and SaaS usage evidence

As licensing models get more consumption/identity-based, the evidence base changes: telemetry, identity platforms, purchase channels, download records, and admin consoles become the source of truth in disputes.

What customers should do: get ahead of evidence with centralised data and repeatable reporting, and continuous governance so audits become a controlled process, not a scramble. See point eight below.

8. SAM becomes SIM

Traditional SAM that is backward-looking and compliance focused will move towards a Software Investment Management (SIM) model. This provides continuous governance and commercial value and risk identification opportunities across mega vendors, SaaS and tail spend.

The shift mirrors what FinOps achieved for cloud infrastructure: regular review cycles, shared ownership across Finance, IT, SAM and Procurement, and smart commercial decisions based on evidence rather than assumptions.

What customers should do: stop treating SAM as an inventory problem and start treating it as an investment management opportunity, focused on portfolio decisions, not licence counts.

Watch our on demand webinar on Software Investment Management.

Conclusion

The winners in 2026 will be the teams who treat licensing like a living commercial discipline, with usage evidence, clear governance, and negotiation prep that starts months before renewal.

If you need support across any of these issues, get in touch.